It’s happened! People have started talking about the previously unthinkable – that even project managers aren’t going to be spared from the relentless march of AI and automation.
But just how much truth is there in this claim and will another entire profession, get scythed down by super software capable of doing everything that real living project managers do. Well there is an increasing body of evidence that thinks it is becoming more likely, across a range of professions and there’s no guarantee that project management won’t be left out.
Let’s take a look at the evidence for and against this concept, starting with the problems in project management.
The Problems in Project Management that Machines could do
There are large amounts of data needed to manage a product. There are dates, times, costs, assignments, deliverables, compliance criteria, reporting requirements, steering group and management meetings, team HR issues, risks and a dozen other things to manage.
Large projects employ planners to model all of this and more planners to constantly adjust the plan as it diverges daily from the schedule. Sometimes, there’s too much data to take in, let alone synthesise to the point where meaningful decisions can be taken.
Machines, however, can crunch data at speeds that eclipse humans, then apply rules to make decisions. These rules could fall into a complex algorithm that learns from its own mistakes and observations. This is part of the reason that AI is beginning to make inroads into knowledge working roles.
However, there are a few crucial reasons why the march of AI into project management may not be entirely assured. They all involve aspects of the project management role which require distinctly human traits, such as face to face communication, emotional intelligence, leadership and the nuances of inter-departmental diplomacy.
Let’s turn our attention now to some of the reasons AI cannot replicate the skills of a good old fashioned human project manager.
1. AI can’t motivate
Look at the question of the data. How is it going to be obtained? Because the fact is, that unless the project team has also been replaced by robots, an AI project manager has to interface with humans. More than that, it has to rely on them to give it data. And anyone who has ever managed a project team knows that getting progress reports out of individuals for a set deadline can be like pulling teeth. The PM has to be able to motivate the team to comply with reporting requirements, meet deadlines and work to quality standards.
There is a personal element to leadership that arguably cannot ever be replaced with anything less than truly sentient AI and the reality of that ever existing is still up for debate. Even if this is an eventuality of technological progress, it certainly won’t happen in our lifetimes.
2. Much project work is becoming more human, not less
More and more projects today aim to produce creative outputs such as film, video and music, or intangibles, such as cultural change. AI can tell you whether something got produced on time and to budget. But can it tell you whether it’s any good? Can it say whether it will make its target audience laugh as intended? We’re some way away from that yet. For some time, possibly forever, the human project manager will have a role in deciding whether or not what’s being produced fulfils the project mandate and brief.
Which brings us to the future role of a project management methodology such as PRINCE2. While the rules, processes, documents and principles could easily be adapted and fed into an AI model, the elements of these methodology that stress flexibility and learning from past mistakes will be inherently difficult for a machine to replicate.
Project managers have real world experiences and understand the business and the personalities within it. Is an AI system going to know whether an innovative product has a design that will appeal to the under 30s for example? Not for a long time. Yet this might be the quality criteria for a work package that has been issued to a designer on a project being run with PRINCE2. So how is the AI going to know whether the work package is fit for purpose?
3. Project management is as much art as science
Project management involves many factors such as leadership, empathy and the ability to inspire. None of these exactly spring to mind when we think of AI. Again, what about the ability to manage conflict in a team, break bad news tactfully, manage expectations, negotiate for scarce resources, spot elephant traps way in advance, horizon scan, and do the dozen other things a skilled project manager has to do to finally achieve success?
There are others in the project field, such as planners and project administrators, whose skills may be very technical, may be based around data, or may be largely administrative. For them, the AI threat is perhaps more real. Their best course is to concentrate on those aspects of project work that are least amenable to being taken over by AI. There will be plenty of these, for the foreseeable future.
About the Author: David Baker is marketing manager at PRINCE2training.co.uk.
